Ukraine is projected to export approximately 14 million tonnes of wheat, 25 million tonnes of corn and 1.52 million tonnes of barley in the 2025/26 marketing year. The sector has preserved its export capacity and rebuilt its logistics under wartime conditions — which, given what was predicted in 2022, is the more remarkable half of the story.
The volumes
| Commodity | MY 2025/26 export projection |
|---|---|
| Wheat | ~14m tonnes |
| Corn | ~25m tonnes |
| Barley | ~1.52m tonnes |
| Agricultural land occupied | ~20% |
What was rebuilt
Ukraine's grain trade ran through Black Sea ports. When that route was closed, the widely held expectation was that exports would collapse and take a meaningful share of global food supply with them.
Instead the sector reconstructed its logistics: alternative corridors, rail and river routes through the Danube, road transport to EU borders, and eventually a functioning maritime corridor operating under wartime conditions. Each of these is more expensive per tonne than the pre-war route, and collectively they have kept volumes at a level that keeps Ukraine among the world's significant agricultural exporters.
The cost shows up in farm margins rather than in world prices. Higher freight, longer routes and insurance premiums are absorbed largely at the producer end, which compresses profitability without reducing tonnage.
The ceiling nobody can lift
Approximately 20% of agricultural land is in occupied territory. That is a hard cap on output, and no improvement in logistics, weather or price changes it. Land that remains accessible also carries the cost of demining, damaged irrigation and disrupted input supply.
Fuel is the second structural cost pressure. Agriculture is fuel-intensive at planting and harvest, and fuel has been the fastest-rising category in the consumer basket, contributing roughly 0.7 percentage points to inflation. Excise duties are legislated to rise from €271 to €300 per tonne on petrol during 2026 and to €330 in 2027 — a cost increase that arrives on schedule regardless of market conditions.
Why it matters beyond agriculture
Grain exports generate foreign currency, and foreign currency is what stabilises the hryvnia. With the currency expected to drift toward 45.5–45.6 per dollar by end-August and the trade balance structurally negative, agricultural export receipts are one of the few market-based sources of hard currency the country has — as opposed to the international assistance that covers the rest.
Better agricultural performance is also one of the four supports underpinning the projected recovery to 2.8–3.7% growth in 2027–2028, and it is the most reliable of them. Unlike returning migrants or private investment, harvests depend on weather and access rather than on decisions people might not make.
Bottom line
The sector rebuilt its route to market and kept its place in world supply, at the cost of thinner margins for producers. Its ceiling is set by occupied land rather than by demand or capability — which means the constraint on Ukrainian agriculture is territorial, and it will not be lifted by anything happening in commodity markets.
This is analysis, not investment advice.