For years the Ukrainian driver's rule of thumb was simple: diesel is the cheaper fill. That rule broke in 2026. On Monday 12 October a litre of diesel averaged UAH 98.68 across the country, UAH 9.32 above the UAH 89.36 charged for A-95, according to A-95 Consulting Group figures published by Minfin. Twelve months earlier diesel was UAH 2.85 below petrol. The inversion is the clearest single signal of what the fuel market has done to household budgets.
The October snapshot against last year
| Fuel | 12 Oct 2026, UAH/litre | 13 Oct 2025, UAH/litre | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A-95 | 89.36 | 58.78 | +52.0% |
| A-95 premium | 93.41 | 63.48 | +47.1% |
| Diesel | 98.68 | 55.93 | +76.4% |
| Autogas (LPG) | 46.24 | 34.46 | +34.2% |
Autogas remains the cheapest option by a wide margin, but even it climbed from UAH 34.46 to UAH 46.24. Measured in dollars, at the official rate of UAH 44.88 for 12 October, A-95 costs about $1.99 a litre and diesel about $2.20. Some of the hryvnia increase is currency rather than commodity: the National Bank's official rate hit a record UAH 45.06 per dollar on 6 October.
How the market got here in seven months
The rise was anything but smooth. On 2 March, days after the United States and Israel launched the war against Iran on 28 February, A-95 stood at UAH 62.87 and diesel at UAH 62.69 — effectively level. By 31 March diesel had vaulted to UAH 85.39, a single-month shock driven by distillate scarcity. Petrol followed more slowly across the summer and then added almost UAH 9 in September alone, closing much of the gap in weeks.
Crude at $106.65 and the OFAC licence
Brent crude futures closed on Monday 12 October at $106.65 a barrel, the highest close since 15 September, Reuters reported as cited by Ekonomichna Pravda. On 13 October 2025 Brent settled at $63.32, so the barrel is up roughly 68% in dollar terms over the year — before any currency effect is added.
The diesel story gained a new chapter on Friday 9 October, when the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License 135, authorising the sale, delivery and import of Russian-origin diesel until 7 April 2027. President Donald Trump said Russia would supply 300,000 tonnes immediately, 500,000 tonnes in November, 1 million tonnes after that and a further 3 million tonnes depending on the state of Russian refineries. Volodymyr Zelensky called it "a weak decision by strong partners".
On 12 October Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, per Reuters, that Russian diesel exports could return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year and reach 3–3.5 million tonnes a month. Russia's own export ban, in force since July, runs until the end of October.
Taxes take roughly a third of the litre
Domestic policy adds its own layer. Since 1 January 2026 the excise duty on petrol has been €300.8 per 1,000 litres, up from €271.7; on diesel €253.8, up from €215.7; on autogas €198, up from €173. At the National Bank's euro rate of UAH 50.24 for 13 October, that works out to roughly UAH 15.11 a litre for petrol and UAH 12.75 for diesel. Adding 20% VAT, equal to one sixth of the retail price, taxes account for about UAH 30 of the UAH 89.36 litre of A-95. The 2024 law schedules two further increases, on 1 January 2027 and on 1 January 2028.
Almost UAH 10 between the cheapest and dearest network
The national average conceals a wide spread in posted prices. Minfin's index for 12 October shows SOCAR at the top with A-95 at UAH 95.90, premium at UAH 98.90, diesel at UAH 104.00 and autogas at UAH 48.61. OKKO and WOG both posted UAH 92.90 for A-95, UAH 95.90 for premium and UAH 99.90 for diesel, with autogas at UAH 47.90 and UAH 48.90 respectively.
UPG and Ukrnafta matched at UAH 88.90 for A-95, UAH 91.90 for premium and UAH 97.90 for diesel, with autogas at UAH 45.90 and UAH 44.90. AMIC listed UAH 87.96, UAH 90.96, UAH 98.51 and UAH 46.75. KLO showed UAH 86.90, UAH 94.60, UAH 99.40 and UAH 47.10, while BRSM-Nafta posted UAH 86.51 for A-95, UAH 96.38 for diesel and UAH 44.59 for autogas.
The distance between SOCAR and BRSM-Nafta on A-95 is UAH 9.39 a litre, about UAH 470 on a 50-litre tank. On diesel the gap between the most and least expensive network is UAH 7.62. Networks also absorb the direct cost of war: OKKO said on 12 October that its losses from Russian attacks since the start of the full-scale invasion exceeded $150 million, with more than 80 filling stations and more than 10 oil depots hit.
What it costs a driver, and what it costs everyone else
A car covering 1,000 km a month at 8 litres per 100 km now spends UAH 7,149 on petrol, against UAH 4,702 a year ago — UAH 2,446 more. A diesel car at 6.5 litres pays UAH 6,414 instead of UAH 3,635, a difference of UAH 2,779. A vehicle on autogas at 10 litres pays UAH 4,624 rather than UAH 3,446.
The indirect effect is larger. Nearly all goods in Ukraine move by truck, and trucks burn diesel. The National Bank said fuel was the fastest-rising item in the September consumer basket at 46.2% year on year, against headline inflation of 10.0%. Consumer prices rose 2.1% in the month, core inflation reached 8.8%, and fuel and lubricants alone added 5.2% in a month. The regulator noted inflation ran well above its July forecast and expects high fuel prices, higher transport and storage costs and damaged logistics to sustain pressure. The key rate is 16%, with a decision due later in October and an updated macro forecast on 29 October.
Three variables that set the December price
Analyst Ruslan Averin identifies three determinants for the pump price before year-end. The first is Russian diesel volumes: if the 300,000 and 500,000 tonnes actually ship and Novak's 3 million tonnes a month materialise, global diesel margins should ease. Novak himself put the resulting fall in world diesel prices at 5–6% — worth a few hryvnias a litre, not a return to UAH 60.
The second is Brent and the Gulf. A close at $106.65 does not describe a falling market, and without durable de-escalation crude keeps petrol near UAH 90. The third is the hryvnia: Ukraine imports most of its fuel and pays in foreign currency, so a move from UAH 44.88 towards UAH 46 per dollar would offset any diesel relief.
The base case set out by Ruslan Averin keeps diesel in a UAH 95–100 range into December, with downside only if Russian volumes arrive on schedule, and A-95 near UAH 88–92. Risks lean upward for petrol: winter logistics demand, attacks on depots and the next excise step on 1 January 2027. Three indicators deserve weekly attention — the Minfin diesel average, Brent's close and the official dollar rate.