Strip away the launch livestreams and the IPO is six numbers. Here they are, with the context the roadshow leaves out.
By Ruslan Averin.
This is Ruslan Averin's by-the-numbers look at the SpaceX S-1 — what the business earns, what it loses, and what the ask implies.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 revenue | $18.67B (+33% YoY) |
| Starlink share of revenue | |
| Starlink users / satellites | 10.3M / 9,600 |
| 2025 net result | -$4.94B (post-xAI merger) |
| 2024 net result (pre-xAI) | +$791M |
| Target valuation / P/S | $1.75T / ~94x sales |
The revenue machine is Starlink
Six of every ten revenue dollars come from satellite internet — 10.3 million subscribers served by 9,600 satellites. This is the recurring, margin-positive core. Launch is the moat that builds it: from a single launch in 2006 to more than two per week in 2026, with Falcon 9 lifting 22.8 metric tons and Falcon Heavy 63.8 to low-Earth orbit.
The merger turned profit into loss
Standalone SpaceX earned $791 million in 2024. After absorbing xAI, the 2025 consolidated result is a $4.94 billion loss. The AI lab is currently a cash furnace attached to a profitable space company — by Ramp's spending data, xAI adoption sits near 5% of business customers versus 30%+ for Anthropic and OpenAI.
What 94x sales means
At $135 a share, the market is asked to pay roughly 94 times revenue. Planet Labs trades near 50x, Rocket Lab near 115x — so SpaceX is priced inside the space-sector euphoria band, but on a base ten times larger. For the multiple to compress gracefully rather than violently, Starlink growth and Starship (100+ reusable tons to orbit, successful May 2026 test) both have to deliver on schedule.
The bottom line
The asset is extraordinary; the price assumes it stays extraordinary on every axis simultaneously. Buying greatness at 94x sales has a long history of working out for the company and poorly for the entry — the numbers say patience costs less than enthusiasm.