When 14.09% Turns Into 10.85%
A twelve-month hryvnia deposit placed at the average market rate is not a 14.09% investment. The bank withholds 18% personal income tax and a 5% military levy at payout, 23% in total, so what reaches the depositor is 10.85%. Against September inflation of 10.0% year on year, the surplus is less than one percentage point.
The Arithmetic on UAH 100,000
Placed for a year at 14.09%, a deposit of UAH 100,000 generates UAH 14,090 of interest. Of that, UAH 3,240.70 goes to the budget and UAH 10,849.30 stays with the saver. Measured properly as (1 + net yield) / (1 + inflation) − 1, the real return is +0.8% — positive, but barely distinguishable from standing still.
Banks Have Stopped Moving Together
The index hides an unusually wide spread. Unex Bank pays 17.50% for twelve months, 17.25% for six and 17.20% for three; Bizbank offers 17.15%, 17.25% and 16.95% respectively. monobank pays 16.00% for a year, abank 15.90%, while PUMB gives 15.00% for twelve months but 17.00% for six and 16.00% for three after lifting its half-year rate by 4 percentage points in early October.
State-owned and foreign-owned institutions sit far lower. PrivatBank and Oschadbank both pay 13.00% for a year, with PrivatBank at just 2.50% for three months and 10.00% for six. Sense Bank offers 12.00% for a year, Ukrgasbank 12.00% despite paying 15.00% for six months, and Raiffeisen Bank 12.00% for three months but only 6.50% for six and twelve.
On three-month money Minfin recorded 17.2% at Unex Bank against 7.1% at Policombank. The figures come from Minfin reviews dated 7 October for large banks, covering 22 September to 5 October, and 14 October for smaller ones, covering 29 September to 12 October; monobank's rates were re-checked on 17 October. In dollars the leaders are Asvio Bank at 2.55% and Taskombank and Bizbank at 2.50%.
Government Bonds Skip the Tax Entirely
At the auction of 13 October, OVDP maturing in September 2027 were placed at 15.09% and paper maturing in March 2029 at 16.45%, both free of income tax and military levy. Individuals held a record UAH 167.5 billion of such bonds on 1 October, according to the Ministry of Finance, buying through banks, brokers and the Diia app.
The trade-offs are real. OVDP are not covered by the Deposit Guarantee Fund, their guarantor is the state budget, and an early exit happens at the market price rather than at face value plus accrued interest.
Real Returns Side by Side
| Instrument | Nominal | Net | Real |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average 3-month deposit (UIRD) | 13.88 | 10.69 | +0.6 |
| Average 12-month deposit (UIRD) | 14.09 | 10.85 | +0.8 |
| PrivatBank, Oschadbank, 12 months | 13.00 | 10.01 | 0.0 |
| monobank, 12 months | 16.00 | 12.32 | +2.1 |
| Unex Bank, 12 months | 17.50 | 13.48 | +3.2 |
| OVDP to September 2027, 13 Oct auction | 15.09 | 15.09 | +4.6 |
| OVDP to March 2029, 13 Oct auction | 16.45 | 16.45 | +5.9 |
All figures are % a year, with inflation taken at 10.0%.
What the UIRD Index Actually Measures
The index is calculated by Thomson Reuters using a method agreed with the National Bank. It aggregates the rates of 20 leading banks on a "classic" product: a new depositor, no top-ups, interest paid at the end, UAH 100,000 or $10,000. On 16 October 2026 it showed 13.88% for three months, 14.49% for six, 14.75% for nine and 14.09% for twelve.
After the 23% deduction those become 10.69%, 11.16%, 11.36% and 10.85%. Dollar quotations run from 0.85% for three months to 0.91%, 0.99% and 1.13% for a year. The curve is inverted at the long end: half-year and nine-month money is priced above the annual benchmark.
Twelve Months of Near-Standstill
On 31 October 2025 the twelve-month index stood at 13.71%; by 16 October 2026 it had reached 14.09%, a gain of only 0.38 percentage points. In between, the National Bank cut its key rate to 15.0% in January, then raised it to 15.5% on 31 July and to 16% on 18 September. Dollar rates drifted from 1.21% down to 1.13%.
Three Forces Behind the Price of Money
Banks park spare liquidity in NBU deposit certificates, and the regulator now rations them: at the 2 October tender it capped placements at UAH 25 billion, rejected 13 of 76 bids and filled the rest at a weighted average of 19.08%, up from 18.24% and 18.81% in September.
The second factor is a bank's own appetite for funding. Serhiy Novoshytskyi of Pivdennyi bank told Minfin that the incentive depends on "the internal need of a particular bank for the resource". The third is inflation: consumer prices rose 2.1% in September and 10.0% year on year, with core inflation at 8.8%, the State Statistics Service reported on 9 October.
Forecast Paths Into 2027
The NBU forecast of 30 July 2026 keeps the key rate at 16% to the first quarter of 2027, then cuts from the second quarter to 14% by the fourth, with inflation at 10.0% in December 2026 and 6.9% in December 2027. At the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of 16 September most members favoured no change in the coming months and cautious easing in 2027; two warned the October forecast might raise the path.
ICU's macro review of 14 October is tougher: 16.5% in October, held to mid-2027 and 15.5% at end-2027, with inflation of 12.0% in December 2026 and 8.2% a year later. The next rate decision falls on 29 October. According to analyst Ruslan Averin, a hold would freeze deposit rates near current levels, while a hike to 16.5% would lift offers only at banks that genuinely need deposits.
Term, Currency and Safety
Short money is best served by the six-month segment, where the index of 14.49% exceeds the annual one and several banks price their peak rate. For a year or more, only the top deposits of 16–17.50% beat an OVDP at 15.09% once tax is counted. Sums above UAH 600,000 deserve splitting, since the 100% guarantee lasts only through martial law and three months beyond.
Analyst Ruslan Averin notes that the average after-tax premium over inflation has narrowed to roughly one percentage point, making the choice of bank and term more consequential than the headline index itself.