Apple heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report, due after the US close on Monday 2 November, as the most valuable listed company in the world. It is also the first set of results under chief executive John Ternus, who replaced Tim Cook on 1 September, so the outlook will be read as his first message to shareholders.
The valuation leaves little slack. Apple closed on Friday 30 October at $344.63, down 1.23% on the day, worth about $5.03 trillion against $4.94 trillion for Nvidia, according to stockanalysis.com. Bloomberg reported on 30 October that Apple had overtaken Nvidia for the top spot. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is 39.5 on that site's data.
The consensus bar
Analysts polled by LSEG expect revenue to rise nearly 11% to $113.39 billion and net income to reach $29.04 billion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. Year-ago figures come from Apple's results filed with the SEC.
| Metric | Expected, Q4 FY2026 | Actual, Q4 FY2025 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $113.39 billion | $102.47 billion | LSEG via Reuters |
| Apple revenue guide | +9% to +11% | — | Apple via CNBC |
| Net income | $29.04 billion | $27.47 billion | LSEG via Reuters |
| iPhone revenue | $56.54 billion | $49.03 billion | LSEG via Reuters |
| Services revenue | $31.56 billion | $28.75 billion | LSEG via Reuters |
| Gross margin guide | 47% to 48% | 47.2% | Apple via CNBC |
Applied to last year's $102.47 billion, the 9–11% guide gives $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion, so the consensus sits near the top of the range. Net income of $29.04 billion works out to about $1.97 per share on the June quarter's 14.71 billion diluted shares, against $1.85 a year earlier; buybacks keep pushing the real per-share bar slightly higher.
The shadow of July
That guide disappointed when it was issued. The 9–11% range was below the 12.1% growth in the FactSet consensus and included a currency headwind of about 2.5 percentage points, CNBC reported. The gross margin range included about one percentage point of tariff refunds. The shares fell almost 8% on Friday 31 July, and that reaction remains the template for the downside.
Memory: the cost that can spoil a beat
In July Tim Cook called the market a "100-year flood on the memory pricing" and said Apple expected "supply constraints to increase significantly sequentially" for iPhone, Mac and iPad, CNBC reported. TechInsights estimates that memory and storage in an iPhone 18 Pro could cost about $196, against roughly $52 in an iPhone 17 Pro, Euronews reported.
Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices by 17% to 25% in June, and the stock posted its worst day in more than a year, according to CNBC. Calculations by Ruslan Averin from Apple's filings put gross margin at 47.2% a year ago and 48.2% in the December 2025 quarter.
The June quarter's 50.1% included about two percentage points of tariff refunds, so the underlying level was close to 48%. The 47–48% guide, with one point of refunds inside it, implies an underlying 46–47%. In plain terms, memory is already eating into profitability before the most expensive handsets ship.
iPhone: a quarter caught between launches
LSEG sees iPhone revenue up about 15%, slowing from 21.7% growth to $54.25 billion in the June quarter. Apple guided in July to "mid-teens" growth, below the 18.1% FactSet consensus at the time, CNBC reported. The base is soft: a year ago the September-quarter iPhone line grew only 6.1%.
The calendar works against the quarter. The iPhone 18 Pro contributed only nine days of sales, and the foldable iPhone Duo is absent from the numbers, AJ Bell analysts noted, as reported by Euronews. The Duo went on sale in the US on Friday 23 October at $1,999, with pre-orders capped at two handsets per customer.
Delivery dates slipped to late January within minutes, Reuters reported, and on 26 October Apple said it would replace Duo units showing screen problems. IDC expects Apple to take 44% of the foldable market by value in 2026 on 31% of units. That demand belongs to the December quarter.
Services and China
Services is the slowest-growing major line in the consensus: about 10% to $31.56 billion, the weakest pace in more than three years, per the Reuters preview cited by Euronews. That compares with 15.1% a year ago and 12.1% in the June quarter, when Services reached $30.74 billion and missed estimates.
Apple guided in July to Services growth similar to the June quarter's 12%, CNBC reported. Delivering that would beat LSEG's figure by roughly $0.6 billion; a result near 10% would mean the Street knew something the guide did not say.
Greater China is the swing line. Sales there rose 22.4% to $18.82 billion in the June quarter but missed the $19.58 billion consensus, CNBC reported. The September-quarter base is easy: $14.49 billion a year ago, down 3.6%. Reuters reported in October that Apple's China smartphone share has rebounded after six straight quarters of declining shipments.
A cheaper route to AI
At WWDC26 Apple introduced what Cook called "the all-new Siri AI" in the July release; the conversational Siri uses Google's Gemini alongside Apple's own models, CNBC reported. Apple pays for AI mostly through research and development, up 32% to $11.73 billion in the June quarter, rather than data-centre capital spending.
Amazon kept its 2026 capex plan at about $220 billion in its Q3 results, and spending dominated Meta's Q3 2026 report. In July, Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes cited Apple's free cash flow, helped by low AI capital spending, as a reason to own the stock, CNBC reported.
Five figures that decide the reaction
Apple rose 3.5% in October, from $333.02 on Wednesday 30 September to $344.63, while AI-linked Nasdaq stocks sold off; its intraday record of $351.73 came on 23 October, the Duo launch day. In July, CNBC-surveyed targets ran from $245 at Barclays (underweight) to $380 at Bank of America (buy). At 39 times earnings, a routine beat is not enough.
Analyst Ruslan Averin singles out five numbers:
- December-quarter revenue guide. Last year's quarter was $143.76 billion; each percentage point of growth is worth about $1.44 billion. Double digits with the Duo would support the valuation.
- December-quarter gross margin. A range below 47–48% would show memory costs outrunning price increases.
- Services growth. Near 12% beats the LSEG bar; near 10% confirms the slowdown.
- iPhone revenue against $56.54 billion, plus any comment on Duo supply.
- Greater China growth against the $14.49 billion base.
The constructive case is September revenue at or above $113.7 billion, a double-digit December guide and margin near 47%. The negative case repeats July: a solid quarter, then a guide showing constraints and memory costs eating the iPhone cycle.
Calendar
- Monday 2 November, after the US close: results and the call; in July it started at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time.
- Tuesday 3 November: the US midterm elections.
- Early November: the 10-K; last year Apple filed it on 31 October, a day after results.
- Late January 2027: the December-quarter report, the first with iPhone Duo sales, when delayed pre-orders should ship.