Two Reports, One Political Shock
On Monday 9 November, before the US market opens, Constellation Energy and NRG Energy publish third-quarter 2026 results. On Friday 6 November Constellation closed at $249.95, a 29.2% loss for 2026, while NRG ended at $88.29, down 44.6% for the year.
NRG's call begins at 8:00 a.m. Eastern time, and Nasdaq's calendar, built on Zacks data, places Constellation on the same morning. Zacks expects adjusted earnings of $3.90 a share for Constellation, up from $3.04, and $3.44 for NRG, against $2.75.
How a Governor's Race Repriced the Sector
The midterms on Tuesday 3 November gave Democrats the House and the Senate, CNBC reported, but Texas mattered most. Gina Hinojosa beat the Republican incumbent Greg Abbott after vowing to ban data centre approvals until the legislature passes new laws, Reuters reported, "to protect Texans, so that Texans have a seat at the table."
On Wednesday 4 November NRG fell 13.5% and Constellation 6.7%, Nasdaq closing data show. The state was already tightening: on 3 August Abbott halted new data centre connections to the grid while ERCOT tracked more than 400 gigawatts of projects seeking to connect. Texas holds 25% of planned US data centre capacity, according to a Goldman Sachs note.
NRG hit its lowest close of 2026, $80.55, on Thursday 5 November. Friday brought relief from Vistra, the closest peer: adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose to $2.378 billion from $1.581 billion, with a first 2027 range of $7.7–8.5 billion and about 98% of 2027 generation hedged. Vistra closed up 10.6%, NRG 9.6% and Constellation 4.3%.
NRG: A Doubled Fleet With a Texas Address
NRG closed the LS Power deal on 30 January 2026, buying 18 gas and dual-fuel plants of about 13 gigawatts plus the CPower demand-response business, for 24.25 million shares and $6.4 billion in cash, doubling capacity. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.217 billion from $909 million, with East jumping to $469 million from $99 million.
Texas fell to $381 million from $512 million on supply costs and mild weather; adjusted EPS dropped to $1.49 from $1.73 on interest and depreciation. On 4 August, the day after Abbott's grid halt, the stock lost 15.5% to $117.04. The growth plan is also Texan: principal terms with a hyperscaler for a 1.2-gigawatt combined-cycle plant, still awaiting final documentation.
Chief executive Robert Gaudette called this "Bring Your Own Power" approach "the model for how large load growth should work." NRG planned $1.0 billion of buybacks in 2026 and had completed $932 million by 31 July. At 8.45 times forward earnings, against 16.42 for the industry, every dollar of repurchases retires more stock.
Constellation: Contracts as a Shield
Constellation completed Calpine on 7 January 2026 for about $21.8 billion, using 50 million new shares and about $4.5 billion of cash. Regulators required $5.0 billion of plant sales in Delaware and Pennsylvania, plus the 606-megawatt Brazos Valley plant in Texas, sold to LS Power for $860 million and due to close by the end of 2026, pending Justice Department approval.
Calpine lifted second-quarter adjusted operating earnings to $2.55 a share from $1.91; the full-year range rose to $11.50–12.50 from $11.00–12.00. On 6 October Google agreed to take 3,590 megawatts, CNBC reported: 890 megawatts under a 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement and 2,700 megawatts under a long-term supply agreement.
That deal backs more than $4.3 billion of investment at 11 reactors in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with first upgraded output in 2028. The stock jumped 12.3% to $300.40 that day, then gave back 16.8%. The Crane restart for Microsoft is due in 2027, and the Freestone data centre site keeps some Texas exposure.
The Numbers Behind Monday's Bar
| Metric | Constellation (CEG) | NRG Energy (NRG) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 adjusted EPS, Zacks consensus | $3.90 | $3.44 |
| Q3 2025 adjusted EPS, Zacks basis | $3.04 | $2.75 |
| Q3 2026 revenue, Zacks consensus | $8.72 billion (+32.7%) | $6.72 billion (−11.9%) |
| Company 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $11.50–12.50 (raised 6 August) | $7.90–9.90 (reaffirmed 4 August) |
| First-half 2026 adjusted EPS | $5.29 | $2.98 |
| Full-year 2026 consensus | $12.18 | $8.62 |
| Forward P/E vs industry, Zacks | 18.74 vs 21.54 | 8.45 vs 16.42 |
After $5.29 in the first half, Constellation's guide implies $6.21–7.21 for the second half; the Zacks quarterly estimates of $3.90 and $3.04 sum to $6.94, near the top. NRG's guide implies $4.92–6.92, while its estimates of $3.44 and $1.94 add up to $5.38. Zacks says NRG's third-quarter estimate fell 6.01% over 60 days.
PJM: A Capped Floor
The PJM auction for 2028/29 cleared on 14 July at its $325 per megawatt-day cap, Utility Dive reported, for a total of $16.4 billion. Without the collar, PJM estimated a price near $555 and $29.7 billion, and supply still fell about 6.8 gigawatts short of target. That supports both fleets, yet a political cap sets the price.
Five Questions for the Calls
Analyst Ruslan Averin sees five items deciding the reaction:
- Texas: whether NRG still expects to sign the 1.2-gigawatt project and what Constellation says about Freestone.
- 2027: Zacks has EPS of $13.30 for Constellation and $9.98 for NRG, after four downward revisions among five estimates in four weeks.
- 2026 guidance: Constellation against $12.18; NRG against its $8.90 midpoint.
- Contracts outside Texas, including more PJM nuclear upgrades.
- Buybacks: NRG's pace after $932 million.
In his view, a pause in Texas would outweigh any EPS beat. A beat with guidance held or raised and no Texas delay would repeat Vistra's Friday, while a delay to NRG's hyperscaler plant would reopen Wednesday's sell-off.
Dates Beyond Monday
- By 31 December: the Brazos Valley closing and Abbott's data centre audit, Reuters reported.
- January 2027: Hinojosa takes office and the Texas Legislature convenes; her ban depends on new laws.
- 2027–2028: the Crane restart and first upgraded nuclear output for Google.