Ukraine's currency market spent October chronically short of dollars, and the National Bank of Ukraine plugged the gap with record sales: almost $6 billion on the interbank market, according to NBU statistics cited by Interfax-Ukraine. The final week, 26 to 30 October, alone took $1,818.15 million, the largest weekly amount on record.
On Monday 2 November the NBU set the official rate for Tuesday 3 November at UAH 45.5348 per dollar, 18 kopecks above Monday's 45.3526. The euro was set at UAH 51.0527, up from 50.6843. At 15:00 Kyiv time the interbank stood at UAH 45.56 to buy and 45.59 to sell, 23 kopecks above Friday's close, Minfin reported.
Analyst Ruslan Averin sees October as a change of regime: after four and a half months near 45, the National Bank let the rate move in the last week of the month while selling more dollars than ever. In his view, the hike to 16.5% on Thursday 29 October bought the hryvnia two days of relief, not a new level.
A record shortfall, day after day
Minfin analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn counted four records in his October review, published on Sunday 1 November. Businesses bought an average of $433.7 million a day on the interbank and sold $245.6 million. The $188.1 million daily gap is the largest on record and almost three times October 2025. Total interbank purchases exceeded $9.5 billion, also a monthly high.
Cash widened the hole: households bought $101.8 million a day and sold $58.2 million. Across the whole market, the average daily shortfall reached $231.6 million, a sum that had to come from somewhere every session. In practice, it came from the central bank.
The National Bank as seller of last resort
Interfax-Ukraine puts October sales at almost $6 billion; Shevchyshyn estimates more than $6 billion. The previous monthly record was $5.52 billion in September. NBU weekly data published by Minfin show $5.51 billion for the four full weeks from 5 to 30 October alone. Since 5 January the NBU has sold $44.28 billion, against a net $36.06 billion in all of 2025.
The last week of October was 52.4% larger than the one before and beat the previous weekly record of $1.63 billion from the end of 2024, Ekonomichna Pravda reported, citing Interfax-Ukraine. It was the sixteenth week in a row above $1 billion, a pace that turns interventions from an emergency tool into routine.
How far the hryvnia actually moved
The selling slowed the slide without stopping it. On Tuesday 27 October the interbank reached UAH 45.70–45.75 and exchange offices asked up to 46.20, the highest on record. The official rate set a new low five times in October, the last at UAH 45.6008 for Wednesday 28 October, NBU Deputy Governor Yuriy Heletiy said at the 29 October briefing, Interfax-Ukraine reported.
Over October the official rate rose 1.49%, from UAH 44.8624 at the end of September to 45.5293, NBU data show. Since the end of 2025 (UAH 42.3878) the dollar has gained 7.4%, and over twelve months, from UAH 41.8924 on 3 November 2025, 8.7%. That is a steady depreciation, not a disorderly one.
Not panic, but arithmetic
Heletiy described a structural gap. From January to October, client demand for currency rose by at least 25%, or about $16 billion, year on year, while supply rose by only about $2 billion. Export proceeds over ten months grew to about $38 billion from $36 billion. He cited higher budget spending and smaller currency sales by agriculture and steel.
The NBU's measure of net non-cash demand averaged $182 million a day in October and $230 million over the last five trading days; net cash demand rose to about $38 million a day from $34 million in September. Shevchyshyn adds idled steel plants and disrupted ports on one side, rising imports of fuel and energy equipment on the other.
Reserves and the policy rate
The RFC Capital Research team reads this as a supply problem that interventions can bridge but not fix, which makes reserves the key variable. They stood at $47.1 billion on 1 October, about four months of future imports. The 1 November figure, usually released in the first week of the month, was not out by Monday 2 November.
The NBU's 29 October forecast keeps reserves above $62 billion in 2026–2027. The same day it raised its key rate to 16.5%, effective 30 October, and said it expects to hold that level until the second quarter of 2027. The National Bank publishes no exchange-rate forecast; its Inflation Report follows on Thursday 5 November.
November: the forecast corridor
| Source | Scenario | November, UAH per dollar |
|---|---|---|
| Shevchyshyn (Minfin) | Base case, 70% | Interbank 45.10–45.95; cash 45.50–46.50 |
| Shevchyshyn (Minfin) | Pessimistic, 15% | Interbank up to 46.90; cash up to 47.50 |
| Shevchyshyn (Minfin) | Optimistic, 15% | Interbank 45.00–45.50 |
| Globus Bank, Serhiy Mamedov (Dengi.ua, 20 October) | No sharp jumps | 45.00–45.70 |
| ICU (review of 14 October) | Year-end | 45.8 end-2026; 49.2 end-2027 |
Monday's interbank rate of 45.59 already sits near the top of the Globus Bank range. Analyst Ruslan Averin's central path for November is roughly 45.3 to 46.0, with heavy NBU selling keeping the move gradual. Three risks could break it upward: delayed partner financing, a winter spike in energy imports after new strikes, and a stronger dollar after the US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November.
What the numbers mean for savers
The UIRD 12-month hryvnia deposit index was 14.29% on 30 October, or 11.00% after the 23% tax on deposit income, Minfin data show; the dollar index was 1.17%, or 0.90% after tax. At the 27 October auction the Ministry of Finance sold UAH 2.0 billion of OVDP maturing on 15 September 2027 at a weighted average 14.94%.
Bonds maturing in February 2030 went at 16.49%, and OVDP interest is not taxed. From the official 45.5348, an 11.00% net hryvnia deposit beats a 0.90% dollar deposit unless the dollar ends the year above about UAH 50.1; a 14.94% yield on a one-year basis wins unless it passes about UAH 51.9. Both levels exceed every forecast quoted, including ICU's 49.2.
Inflation is the harder test: 10.0% in September, with the NBU now expecting 12.5% in December. Against that path an 11.00% net deposit roughly breaks even in real terms, while tax-free OVDP keep a margin of about 2.4 percentage points. The team's conclusion: hryvnia instruments for money spent in hryvnia within a year, dollars as the hedge against sharper devaluation.
Dates to watch
- Tuesday 3 November: OVDP auction and US midterm elections.
- Thursday 5 November: NBU Inflation Report.
- First week of November: reserves at 1 November and intervention data for 2–6 November.
- Monday 9 November: summary of the NBU board discussion.
- Thursday 17 December: next NBU rate decision.