A price tag that shrank while the numbers grew
Two weeks after Anthropic made its IPO filing public, the most important number is the one that moved down. By Friday 6 November, investors told CNBC they expect a valuation of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, against the $2 trillion floated in October. The roadshow is expected to start in the week of 9 November.
The business itself looks stronger than the leaks suggested. The amended prospectus filed with the SEC on Monday 2 November shows third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, up 1,127% year on year, and about $895.4 billion of compute and infrastructure commitments, according to the S-1/A on EDGAR.
Analyst Ruslan Averin reads the period as a repricing of the whole AI trade rather than of one company: the prospectus confirmed the demand story, yet the Nasdaq lost more than 5% in a single session and the expected price fell by a quarter or more.
Quarter by quarter
| Quarter | Revenue | Operating income (loss) | Adjusted operating income | Net loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.73 billion | −$1.67 billion | −$0.62 billion | $14.44 billion |
| Q2 2026 | $11.56 billion | $0.97 billion | $2.24 billion | $66.31 billion |
| Q3 2026 | $16.96 billion | −$0.57 billion | $2.46 billion | $23.29 billion |
Source: Anthropic S-1/A, unaudited quarterly results of operations. Revenue for the nine months to 30 September reached $33.24 billion, against $2.55 billion a year earlier. Sequential growth is cooling, though: revenue rose 144% in the second quarter and 47% in the third, CNBC calculated.
Why the net loss looks so large
Of the $104.0 billion nine-month net loss, $94.3 billion is the change in fair value of convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs, which the filing ties to the rise in the company's own valuation. In other words, most of the headline loss is an accounting by-product of Anthropic becoming more valuable, not cash leaving the business.
The operating line is the more honest signal. On a GAAP basis Anthropic slipped back to a loss of $567 million in the third quarter, and adjusted operating margin, which excludes stock compensation and non-cash charitable contributions, fell to 15% from 19%. Compute and infrastructure expenses were $9.86 billion, or 58% of revenue, against 48% in the second quarter.
The balance sheet gives the company time to absorb that pressure. At 30 September Anthropic held $95.6 billion of cash and $36.3 billion of short-term investments, having raised $141.1 billion in total, according to the S-1/A. That cushion is larger than the payments due over the next 12 months.
The filing path and the blanks that remain
The process started with a confidential draft registration (DRS) on Monday 1 June, followed by five amended confidential drafts (DRS/A) between 13 July and 9 October. The public Form S-1 arrived on Monday 26 October for a listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol "ANT". That day the Nasdaq-100 closed 1.09% higher at 29,273.40.
Amendment No. 1 still leaves the price range, the number of shares and the offering size blank; the cover reads that the price "will be between $ and $". Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead a syndicate of more than 20 banks that includes J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Barclays, Wells Fargo, BofA Securities and Deutsche Bank.
Leaks against the filed figures
The October analysis of the reported $2 trillion target, published on 21 October, came before the prospectus. The $2 trillion figure CNBC reported on 13 October is now gone. One investor told CNBC that $1 trillion to $1.25 trillion is more likely and called $1.5 trillion a "stretch". Even the low end sits above the $965 billion Series H of May.
Other leaks held up better. CNBC's pre-filing third-quarter revenue of $16.8 billion became $16.96 billion, so quarterly growth was 46.7%, not 44.8%. Adjusted profit was confirmed at $2.46 billion, although the GAAP operating line was a loss. For 2025, revenue of $4.59 billion and a net loss of $41.97 billion matched the leaked figures.
The spending picture changed most. Reuters' $518 billion infrastructure figure has been replaced by the filed total of $895.4 billion, so the real commitment is far larger than the market had assumed in October. The banks and the exchange are now confirmed; the size of the offering is not.
Compute commitments against revenue
Anthropic's commitments of about $895.4 billion are "substantially all" related to compute and infrastructure. About $447.5 billion falls before the end of 2030, and about $69.8 billion is due in the 12 months after 30 September. Annualised third-quarter revenue is $67.8 billion, so the total is about 13 times current revenue, while the next year of payments roughly equals one year of revenue.
The bull case is demand: the filing says Anthropic has "consistently operated in a compute-constrained environment where customer demand exceeds available compute". The bear case is margin: as delivered compute grew in the third quarter, the operating line went back into the red. It is the same gap between AI capex and AI revenue priced into CoreWeave, now disclosed by the buyer.
For listed suppliers, the document doubles as a revenue map. Anthropic committed at least $44.9 billion to Microsoft between November 2026 and June 2033, and up to $120.5 billion to SpaceX's AI unit for Nvidia-powered compute into 2029, about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity arrives, which is expected in December 2026.
How AI stocks took the news
The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% on Thursday 5 November to 24,315.00, its steepest drop in 19 months, after Tuesday's midterm elections, CNBC reported. CNBC linked the sell-off to fears that Democrats' new power and a national rebuke of AI will slow the data-centre build-out; voters opposed data-centre ballot measures in 40 of 41 cases. Nvidia lost 9.26% that day and CoreWeave 9.83%.
On Friday the Composite closed at 24,579.43, up 1.09%, and the Nasdaq-100 at 26,989.99. Nvidia ended at $186.64 and CoreWeave at $46.40. Amazon, at $259.30, was the one name in this group higher since 23 October, while Alphabet, at $284.78, is still carrying the 12.64% fall that followed its earnings on 29 October.
Amazon and Alphabet as listed proxies
Amazon's convertible notes cannot convert beyond 12% of Anthropic's capitalisation unless Amazon waives the cap, and a further $15 billion of Amazon note financing is available. Alphabet holds an option to buy up to $10.0 billion of stock in a private placement at the IPO price, alongside a $20 billion note facility, the S-1/A shows.
A listing at $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion would still mark both stakes above the May round, but well below what a $2 trillion debut implied. At $1 trillion the price equals about 14.7 times annualised third-quarter revenue; at $1.5 trillion, about 22.1 times.
Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson told CNBC: "The market really needs this IPO to go well and the bankers on the deal surely understand that." Analyst Ruslan Averin shares that view and would read a price range near the $1 trillion end as the bankers choosing a clean debut over a record valuation.
Dates that will set the price
The week of 9 November should bring the roadshow and an S-1/A with the price range and share count, the first filed document that implies a valuation. CNBC expects the Nasdaq debut in mid-November, though no pricing date has been filed. The Nasdaq-100 Fast Entry evaluation falls on the seventh trading day after listing.
Supply of stock after the debut matters as well. Lock-ups will be released in stages 27, 48, 62 and 76 days after the IPO, CNBC reported from the prospectus, while some employee and early-investor shares can be sold from the first day of trading.