Ukrainian drivers watching the oil market on Monday 2 November saw a sharp move. In trading that day, Brent for January delivery was 6.2% lower at $106.37 a barrel and WTI 6.2% lower at $97.63 at 8:40 a.m. ET, CNBC reported, after three days of talks between Iran and Qatari mediators on ending the US–Israel war on Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Analyst Ruslan Averin reads the slide as a cut in the war premium rather than a change in physical supply. For Ukraine the distinction matters: pump prices have not followed oil lower in the past, and in October diesel and autogas were the fastest-rising fuels in the country.
From barrel to litre: a small gain
A barrel holds 159 litres. At the NBU official rate of UAH 45.3526 per dollar for 2 November, each $1 per barrel is worth about UAH 0.29 a litre of crude, by Ruslan Averin's calculation. The $7.06 drop from Friday's Brent settlement to Monday's 8:40 a.m. ET quote equals about UAH 2 a litre before excise, VAT, refining and logistics. Three brakes slow it further:
- Ukraine imports fuel, not crude. Pump prices track European product quotes and delivery costs, which lag Brent.
- The hryvnia. The official dollar rate rose to UAH 45.3526 on 2 November from UAH 44.6819 on 1 October, according to the NBU, a 1.5% increase that offsets part of any oil decline.
- Margins. Oleksandr Sirenko of the consultancy Naftorynok told Fakty that retailers "traded at zero" on diesel for a long time and must rebuild margins, so pump prices are unlikely to follow even if diesel quotes fall. He expects autogas to cross UAH 60 a litre in November.
October at the pump: diesel and autogas lead
On Monday 2 November the national average stood at UAH 90.08 a litre for A-95, UAH 104.50 for diesel and UAH 58.41 for autogas, according to A-95 Consulting Group data published by Minfin. The month-long series shows how unevenly the war shock has spread across fuel types.
| Fuel, UAH per litre | 1 October | 30 October | 2 November | Change since 1 October |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-95 | 89.27 | 90.07 | 90.08 | +0.9% |
| A-95 premium | 93.57 | 93.89 | 93.89 | +0.3% |
| A-92 | 85.98 | 86.47 | 86.35 | +0.4% |
| Diesel | 98.44 | 104.26 | 104.50 | +6.2% |
| Autogas (LPG) | 43.93 | 57.66 | 58.41 | +33.0% |
Petrol barely moved, with every grade up by less than 1%. Diesel added UAH 6.06 a litre and autogas UAH 14.48, rising on every trading day from 5 October to 30 October, the Minfin series shows. A car on autogas now pays about a third more per litre than at the start of October, while a car on A-95 pays almost the same.
Why the NBU is watching
The National Bank of Ukraine names fuel as the main driver of inflation. Raising its rate to 16.5% on Thursday 29 October, it cited "direct and second-round effects from the surge in fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East". Inflation was 10.0% in September; the NBU expects 12.5% at the end of 2026 and 7.3% in 2027, citing "the expected decrease in global prices for crude oil".
The oil board: Friday against Monday
January Brent settled at $113.43 and December WTI at $104.12 on Friday 30 October. Those levels are implied by Reuters, which reported Brent down $4.79 at $108.64 and WTI down $4.41 at $99.71 at 10:20 GMT on Monday, both 4.2% lower, before the losses widened to 6.2% by 8:40 a.m. ET.
The expiring December Brent contract settled at $117.64 on Friday, up 2.4%, CNBC said, close to the wartime closing high of $118.35 set in March. Monday's figures, by contrast, are intraday quotes rather than settlements, so the session's final prices may differ from those cited here.
Inside the Doha track
The war began on 28 February with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, CNBC recalls; a preliminary agreement signed on 17 June broke down weeks later. The current round started on Friday 30 October with more than 12 hours of talks between Qatari mediators and Iranian officials in Tehran, CNBC reported citing a source familiar with the discussions, before moving to Doha over the weekend.
Pakistan is mediating alongside Qatar, according to Al Jazeera. At the core is a two-day plan: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days and restart peace talks with the US, but only if Washington meets Tehran's demands. As listed by Al Jazeera, those demands are:
- lifting recently imposed US sanctions;
- reinstating the oil waivers granted in June;
- reducing the US military presence in the region;
- recognising Hormuz shipping routes designated by Iran and Oman;
- ending the conflict on all fronts, including Israel's attacks on Lebanon.
Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday; a draft proposal is circulating and a follow-up meeting is possible, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters. Secretary of State Marco Rubio knew of no timeframe: "If there is a diplomatic solution, we would be open to it," Al Jazeera quoted him. Trump called the talks "going fine" but "not very reliable".
The physical risk remains. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said four tankers struck mines in Hormuz on Friday, a claim CNBC noted has not been independently verified. Kpler data cited by CNBC show crude exports through the strait fell to 7.3 million barrels a day in the week to Wednesday 28 October, more than 40% below the pre-war baseline.
Goldman's base case and a thin cushion
Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts on Sunday 1 November and now sees Brent at $105 and WTI at $94 in December, citing "high disruption risk", with a global supply disruption allowance of 1 million barrels a day through 2027, CNBC reported. In its risk case, Brent could reach $140 in 2027 if Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average, Reuters said.
The buffer is thin: the ADNOC chief executive said the world has drawn nearly 1 billion barrels from inventories since the war disrupted Hormuz shipping, according to Reuters. Monday's drop therefore prices a deal that has not been signed. Goldman's $105 December Brent is roughly where January Brent traded on Monday morning, so the market already sits near the bank's base case.
What it would take for pump prices to fall
A move lower in oil would need a signed agreement and real tanker traffic; a breakdown after Tuesday's vote would quickly bring back Friday's $113–118 levels. For November, the base case is petrol roughly flat near UAH 90, diesel holding above UAH 100 and autogas still rising. A durable drop at the pump needs Brent below about $105 for several weeks and a stable hryvnia.
Dates to watch
- Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections; President Trump has left open the possibility of renewed strikes after the vote.
- Washington's response to the two-day Hormuz plan and any follow-up meeting in Doha.
- Thursday 5 November: the NBU Inflation Report with the detailed October forecast, including fuel assumptions.
- Weekly Kpler and tanker data: a rise in Hormuz flows from 7.3 million barrels a day would be the first physical sign of de-escalation.