Markets, capital, and the discipline of patient investing.
RFC Capital Research publishes the independent analysis of Ruslan Averin — an investor focused on public markets, sovereign and corporate fixed income, cross-border real estate, and capital allocation across emerging and frontier markets.
No institutional mandate, no house view to defend — a working record of how one investor thinks about risk, value, and the markets most analysts avoid.
Gold at $4,285 Before the Fed: Real Yields at 2.63% Explain the 23% Drawdown
Gold at $4,285 before the Fed's first hike since 2023: real yields at 2.63%, 23% below the January record, ETF holdings at 4,189 tonnes, and the key levels.
MarketsLennar's August Quarter: the 12.9% Incentive Line Meets a 6.76% Mortgage
Lennar earnings preview: 16% margin guide, 12.9% incentives, 6.76% mortgages and a Fed hike two hours before the print on 16 September 2026.
MarketsYanbu's Five-to-Seven-Day Cushion: Brent Above $105 With No Petroline Restart Date
Saudi East-West pipeline outage strands about 4 million barrels a day; Yanbu covers five to seven days of exports, Brent near $107.50 and no restart date.
MarketsEl Nino Hits Very Strong: Sugar and Rice Have Repriced, Cocoa and Coffee Have Not
El Nino 2026 hit +2.0C on 14 September with a 75% chance of a historic event. Sugar and rice have repriced; cocoa, down 19%, and coffee, down 30%, have not.
Real EstateThree Speeds in Ukraine's Housing Market: 7–10% Markups, UAH 11.7 Billion, $16,900 Flats
Ukraine housing market September 2026: finished new-builds up 7–10%, eOselya lending UAH 11.7 billion since January, one-room flats from $16,900.
MarketsDuration, Not Coupon: Why a 5.25% 30-Year Treasury Is a Trade, Not a Holding
30-year Treasury yield at 5.25% after a 5.216% auction: duration math, a shrinking foreign bid, and why the 20-year and TIPS may pay better.